I published my latest Youtube video HERE.
This video captures my live reaction as BIP-110 mandatory signaling began and Bitcoin split into competing chains.
I had two separate Mempool instances running side-by-side: one following the BIP-110 rules and one following the existing consensus rules, so I could watch events unfold in real time.
The first block after mandatory signaling was mined by AntPool, a large Chinese pool, and it was non-compliant with BIP-110. Soon after, Roughnecks, a miner on OCEAN who have been mavericks in the spam war and had been signaling support for some time, mined a BIP-110-compliant block, creating the chain split. At that point, we had real hope that the BIP-110 side might win.
A second large Chinese pool, F2Pool, then extended the non-compliant chain. The question became whether the major U.S. pools might be enforcing BIP-110, potentially overtaking that chain and wiping out those blocks.
Then came one of the most unexpected moments: a second miner on OCEAN, Simple Mining, happened to find the next block - and it was on the non-compliant chain. The timing was almost absurd, and it was a pretty crushing moment for anyone hoping to see BIP-110 succeed.
Finally, Foundary, a major U.S. pool, mined another non-compliant block. At that point, it became clear that BIP-110 did not have a chance to realistically win.
This is the raw reaction as it happened: optimism, uncertainty, a bizarre statistical twist, and ultimately the realization that the soft fork was not going to activate successfully.